US-Iran conflict to cut global fuel demand by 2.4mbpd

The US-Iran conflict is expected to reduce global refined petroleum products demand by 2.4 million barrels per day before the end of 2026, as supply disruptions, rising fuel prices and restrictions on shipping and aviation weigh on consumption across major markets. The decline was expected to be concentrated in the second and third quarters of the year, when disruptions to supplies, elevated pump prices and restrictions on regional shipping and aviation had their greatest impact, according to projections by Kpler. The outlook shows that gasoil and diesel will suffer the largest decline among refined products, with demand projected to fall by 500,000 barrels per day this year. Liquefied petroleum gas (cooking gas) demand is expected to drop by 460,000 barrels per day, while naphtha co...